Where To Find Credit After The Crunch
This is obviously going to be difficult! We have all been through a turbulent time and some say we are not through it yet, all sectors look battered and bruised. The private sector has been badly hit and those that have come through the other side (if we are indeed through) are risk adverse, the scar of the recession lingering on and festering like an infected wound. The public sector hasn't fared better but they have only really started to see the pain. Believe you me it's only going to get worse there!
It goes without saying it would be incredibly risky to up sticks and embark on a new career with decent jobs so scarce. For most though, it could be the only way to secure a pay rise, with wages freeze's still common, on top of jobseekers and other benefits to be slashed by the coalition. Combine this with the scarcity of credit and the comfortable situation that arose, particularly in Britain, Europe and US, of owing and being owed high amounts in a cycle of debt.
So onto the scene comes Jonathan Davis, a top wealth management advisor and a man whose expertise is regularly featured across the UK media. This man is going to know a thing or two about what is going to happen with money markets and specifically lending trends over the next 3 or 4 years. It started to become abundantly clear that serious damage like this will take long time to clear up. Deep wounds don't heal overnight, we have just been through major surgery and the surgeon is still looking for his watch. Jonathan, as incisive as ever, explains that this problem has been building up for a significantly long time, "the big picture is that for 30 years, we've had a growing debt problem". Of course it's not just us this affects all the major markets in the West. Debt in the West I suppose! It all bubbled in 2006-2007, and now we're experiencing the hangover of the debt party. I refer you to the 1930s, and the depression based upon de-leveraging effects following, by then, the biggest debt bubble in history during the 1920s." Jonathans next comment made me think, and shiver, " This time it's from the biggest debt bubble of all time."
So how do the banks figure in this mess? "The banks are, technically, insolvent themselves. You'd be hard pushed to find a bank or building society in the UK that is solvent, when real assets are taken into account." Jonathan goes onto explain how the bank's assets may not help, "It's all well and good to have property, but if that lies vacant, and there's a loan outstanding, then it's a loss." We are invited to consider the towns we live in r travel through. Try taking a look around, everywhere you see 'To Let' boards everywhere. At least 10% of shops are lying empty. Then you have to think of the supporting structures and building such as offices, factories and warehouses. "You have an enormous swathe of bad debt coming down the line. That's one of the reasons banks are reducing lending, because they know they will be cutting red ink right across the balance sheet in due course. On top of that they also have the wider G20 issue, of what's called Basel 3, which is a change in the regulations of international banking," This looks bad, actually this looks worse than that.
As we call for tighter banking regulations, it still seems as though the average British Citizen is the one bearing the brunt of the current state of affairs. Amidst the bailout controversies lays the Basel 3 agreement, which emerged from the G20, which calls for banks to have a higher level of constant cash reserves. As a result, the banks are limiting what they lend, a level that is unlikely to return to its pre-recession levels for quite some time. Davis reiterates this, "Basel 3 is to prevent a future bubble emerging, followed by a crash. We're still in one crash right now, and it will continue for years".
From this I can see we can safely assume that lending restriction are going to stay in place for some time to come. One thing I certainly would be interested in is how this all affects interest rates, in terms of are we going to see massive rates just to be able to borrow money? "People are already massively in debt. The amount of debt in society is more than there ever has been. I read surveys from big financial institutions that say if the cost of living goes up 100 per month, people couldn't afford to live- that's how bad it is,"
While the experts are always worried about people turning to the more shady elements to gain credit, the fact interest rates are up and criteria is simple according to Davis "The banks are actually discouraging folk from taking on more debt by increasing interest rates, way beyond the base rate- really it's all they can do, it's not because they want to."
"So the trend in the future will be that people will not be taking on more plastic credit, they will not be increasing consumer spending, they will not be taking on mortgages, because they simply can't." So we can't get into debt, because nobody is prepared to lend. Jonathan goes onto explain that this brings us full circle to the original hypothesis, which is that the banks have got no money. Hence they can't lend. So in the UK we have the smallest quantity of mortgages being underwritten for a decade.
However, "If you're talking about over-priced, bad loans, they will always be advertised on TV, and they will pick up market share." Unfortunately these companies do exist and anybody considering dealing with this type of organisation first really need to take professional advice, as Jonathan say "really once you start dealing with those types of businesses, you're on a hiding to nothing- they'll just take your house off you for the sake of a few thousand pounds." So be careful and take advice, probably debt advice.
We all know that crystal balls don't work but Jonathan Davis makes sense, real sense. We have just run out of petrol and now we are walking in the rain. It is going to take time to get use to it but we are going to have to. So what about credit after the crunch? Probably not advisable unless under professional advice. Like a lot of things in life!
James writes for Just Remortgages one of the UK's top sites for the latest remortgage rates and best remortgage deals
categories: economy,economics,jobs,unemployment,mortgage,refinance,debt
